SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
83-69 | Road
1
NEW YORK
METSNYM
78-74 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bradgley Rodriguez
#72 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Torrens
#13 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradgley Rodriguez | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Luis Torrens | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.08
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
53%
METS
47%
PADRES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.7%
NYM By 1-2 runs
14.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.81
SAN DIEGO
New York
4.22
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
B
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
SD @ NYM
2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
SD @ NYM
5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026
SD @ NYM
1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
NYM @ SD
7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
NYM @ SD
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.925
▲
OPS
.705
4
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+44.0% more
San Diego: 10.6
vs
New York: 5.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+28.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+22.0%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.8
1
NYM Score
4.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 10.0
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.8 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 10.6
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 17.3
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.3 / 1.7
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SD
NYM
SD
ML
50%
79-80
51%
85-83
48%
76-83
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
91-77
49%
78-81
55%
92-75
TTL
55%
80-66-13
51%
82-80-6
51%
74-72-13
54%
86-74-6
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