Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Rockies MIA @ COL

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

72-80  |  Road

9
FINAL
Thu, Sep 18 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

41-111  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Gordon
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Gordon

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Calvin Faucher None-None 3.28 -- 0.1 --
Tanner Gordon None-None 6.00 -- 6.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
3.28 Ldr ERA 6.00
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
71%
📊
ROCKIES
29%
MARLINS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

53.1%

Rockies Cover

46.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

18.9%

MIA By 3-4 runs

14.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

17.9%

COL By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.15
MIAMI
3.84
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 MIA @ COL 4 - 14
Jul 1, 2026 MIA @ COL 3 - 6
Jun 30, 2026 MIA @ COL 14 - 3
Jun 29, 2026 MIA @ COL 10 - 7
Mar 29, 2026 COL @ MIA 3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.727
OPS
▲ .739
168
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +58.0% more
Miami: 1.0 vs Colorado: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +44.1% more
Miami: 7.5 vs Colorado: 4.2
Hits (L5) +11.9% more
Miami: 9.8 vs Colorado: 8.6
Total Bases (L5) +11.1% more
Miami: 14.2 vs Colorado: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.2 9
COL Score 3.8 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 9.8 11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 4.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 4.2 / 7.5 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 14.2 26.0 / 24.0
Walks 4.1 / 2.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
MIA
COL
MIA
ML
60% 97-64
48% 78-84
55% 88-73
55% 88-72
ATS
60% 97-64
56% 91-71
52% 83-78
54% 86-74
TTL
60% 93-62-6
56% 88-69-5
50% 77-78-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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