Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Dodgers SF @ LAD

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

76-76  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Sep 18 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

85-67  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb None-None 3.27 -- 7.0 5
Alex Vesia None-None 2.68 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.27 ERA Ldr 2.68
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
44%
📊
DODGERS
56%
GIANTS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Los Angeles)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

23.3%

Dodgers Cover

76.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SF By 1-2 runs

10.9%

SF By 3-4 runs

5.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.33
SAN FRANCISCO
7.25
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim Giants (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAD @ SF 5 - 1
Sep 26, 2026 LAD @ SF 4 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 LAD @ SF 2 - 0
Sep 20, 2026 SF @ LAD 1 - 3
Sep 19, 2026 SF @ LAD 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.706
OPS
▲ .762
178
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +151.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.1 vs San Francisco: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +105.3% more
Los Angeles: 17.4 vs San Francisco: 8.5
Strikeouts (L5) +83.5% more
Los Angeles: 10.2 vs San Francisco: 5.6
Hits (L5) +76.3% more
Los Angeles: 9.8 vs San Francisco: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.3 1
LAD Score 7.3 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.8 / 5.6 5.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 5.6 14.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 8.5 7.0 / 1.0
Walks 4.2 / 4.3 10.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SF
LAD
SF
ML
56% 92-73
49% 79-81
48% 79-87
53% 85-75
ATS
59% 98-67
62% 100-60
43% 72-94
52% 83-77
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 82-68-10
44% 70-90-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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