Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Buccaneers NYJ @ TB

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

0-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

2-0  |  Home

29
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
JETS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Tampa Bay)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

28.4%

Buccaneers Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

NYJ By 1-6 points

12.2%

NYJ By 7-13 points

8.8%

TB By 1-6 points

16.1%

TB By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17.72
NEW YORK
25.72
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 21, 2025 NYJ @ TB 27 - 29
Jan 2, 2022 TB @ NYJ 28 - 24
Nov 12, 2017 NYJ @ TB 10 - 15
Sep 8, 2013 TB @ NYJ 17 - 18
Dec 13, 2009 NYJ @ TB 26 - 3
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +24.2% more
Tampa Bay: 22.0 vs New York: 17.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.1% more
Tampa Bay: 205.0 vs New York: 167.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.5 vs New York: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +22.0% more
Tampa Bay: 351.6 vs New York: 288.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 17.7 27
TB Score 25.7 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 17.7 19.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 205.0 / 167.8 225.0 / 168.0
Rushing Yards 146.6 / 120.4 122.0 / 99.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 351.6 / 288.2 347.0 / 267.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.0 5.4 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYJ
TB
NYJ
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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