PITTSBURGH
STEELERSPIT
1-1 | Road
21
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTSNE
1-1 | Home
14
Key Game
KEY GAME
Chris Boswell
#9 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Bryce Baringer
#17 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Chris Boswell | None-None |
| Bryce Baringer | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
100%
PATRIOTS
0%
STEELERS
--
PATRIOTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (New England)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)
PIT By 1-6 points
15.1%
PIT By 7-13 points
12.6%
NE By 1-6 points
17.0%
NE By 7-13 points
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
24.21
PITTSBURGH
New England
27.61
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
20
PITTSBURGH
New England
23
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Patriots
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Patriots
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Patriots (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim
Patriots (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 51.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PIT @ NE
3 - 20
Sep 21, 2025
PIT @ NE
21 - 14
Dec 7, 2023
NE @ PIT
21 - 18
Sep 18, 2022
NE @ PIT
17 - 14
Sep 8, 2019
PIT @ NE
3 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+34.5% more
New England: 100.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 74.7
First Downs (L5)
+17.2% more
New England: 18.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 15.6
Total Yards (L5)
+16.4% more
New England: 318.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 273.3
Yards Per Play (L5)
+10.7% more
New England: 5.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
24.2
21
NE Score
27.6
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.2 / 15.6
26.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards
217.7 / 198.6
250.0 / 139.0
Rushing Yards
100.4 / 74.7
119.0 / 64.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.46 / 0.44
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards
318.1 / 273.3
369.0 / 203.0
Turnovers
0.8 / 1.1
5.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
5.4 / 4.9
5.2 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
NE
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -2.9
NE
Advantage
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.4
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
PIT
NE
PIT
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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