Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Commanders LV @ WSH

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

1-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

1-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Matt Gay
KEY GAME

Matt Gay

#14 | Place kicker
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Matt Gay None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
0%
📊
COMMANDERS
100%
RAIDERS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
LAS VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Las Vegas)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

58.6%

Commanders Cover

41.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LV -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LV)

LV By 1-6 points

17.0%

LV By 7-13 points

17.5%

WSH By 1-6 points

15.2%

WSH By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
15.05
LAS VEGAS
12
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
LAS VEGAS
24
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raiders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 21, 2025 LV @ WSH 24 - 41
Dec 5, 2021 WSH @ LV 17 - 15
Sep 24, 2017 LV @ WSH 10 - 27
Sep 29, 2013 WSH @ LV 24 - 14
Dec 13, 2009 WSH @ LV 34 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.5% more
Las Vegas: 1.7 vs Washington: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +73.5% more
Washington: 123.7 vs Las Vegas: 71.3
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
Washington: 20.9 vs Las Vegas: 17.9
Total Yards (L5) +14.6% more
Washington: 340.4 vs Las Vegas: 297.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 15.1 24
WSH Score 12.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 17.9 17.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 216.7 / 225.8 199.0 / 261.0
Rushing Yards 123.7 / 71.3 201.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 340.4 / 297.1 400.0 / 354.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.8 7.4 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
LV
WSH
LV
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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