Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Panthers ATL @ CAR

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

1-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

0-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
JD Bertrand
KEY GAME

JD Bertrand

#40 | Linebacker
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
JD Bertrand None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
FALCONS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Atlanta)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

56.9%

Panthers Cover

43.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ATL -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-6 points

16.9%

ATL By 7-13 points

17.1%

CAR By 1-6 points

15.5%

CAR By 7-13 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
14.71
ATLANTA
12.27
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
24
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Falcons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Falcons (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CAR @ ATL 34 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 CAR @ ATL 30 - 27
Sep 21, 2025 ATL @ CAR 0 - 30
Jan 5, 2025 CAR @ ATL 44 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 ATL @ CAR 38 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.3% more
Atlanta: 161.0 vs Carolina: 96.2
Total Yards (L5) +13.0% more
Atlanta: 368.9 vs Carolina: 320.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.6% more
Atlanta: 5.5 vs Carolina: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +69.0% more
Carolina: 1.6 vs Atlanta: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 14.7 0
CAR Score 12.3 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 22.3 15.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 224.6 / 207.8 114.0 / 201.0
Rushing Yards 96.2 / 161.0 110.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 320.8 / 368.9 224.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.5 4.1 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
ATL
CAR
ATL
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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