Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Seahawks NO @ SEA

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

0-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 4:05 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

1-1  |  Home

44
Key Game
Isaiah Stalbird
KEY GAME

Isaiah Stalbird

#44 | Linebacker
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
Isaiah Stalbird None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
SAINTS --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Seattle)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 SeahawksSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

46.2%

Seahawks Cover

53.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

NO By 1-6 points

16.0%

NO By 7-13 points

14.3%

SEA By 1-6 points

16.8%

SEA By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17.7
NEW ORLEANS
19.05
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
24
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 21, 2025 NO @ SEA 13 - 44
Oct 9, 2022 SEA @ NO 32 - 39
Oct 25, 2021 NO @ SEA 13 - 10
Sep 22, 2019 NO @ SEA 33 - 27
Oct 30, 2016 SEA @ NO 20 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +74.0% more
Seattle: 1.5 vs New Orleans: 0.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.5% more
Seattle: 5.6 vs New Orleans: 4.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +10.0% more
Seattle: 215.3 vs New Orleans: 195.7
Total Yards (L5) +8.4% more
Seattle: 321.0 vs New Orleans: 296.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 17.7 13
SEA Score 19.1 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 19.0 22.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 215.3 / 195.7 233.0 / 205.0
Rushing Yards 105.7 / 100.5 87.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 321.0 / 296.2 320.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 4.7 5.9 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
SEA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
SEA
1-1-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
SEA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
NO
SEA
NO
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 1-1-2
0% 0-4
50% 1-1-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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