Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Chargers DEN @ LAC

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

1-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

2-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Wil Lutz None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
CHARGERS
100%
BRONCOS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

58.1%

Chargers Cover

41.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

17.4%

LAC By 1-6 points

15.3%

LAC By 7-13 points

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
28.02
DENVER
25.14
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
24
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.9
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 LAC @ DEN 3 - 19
Sep 21, 2025 DEN @ LAC 20 - 23
Dec 19, 2024 DEN @ LAC 27 - 34
Oct 13, 2024 LAC @ DEN 23 - 16
Dec 31, 2023 LAC @ DEN 9 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.6% more
Denver: 1.4 vs Los Angeles: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Denver: 121.0 vs Los Angeles: 89.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +27.5% more
Los Angeles: 257.2 vs Denver: 201.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 28.0 20
LAC Score 25.1 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 20.6 29.0 / 9.0
Net Passing Yards 257.2 / 201.8 270.0 / 147.0
Rushing Yards 89.2 / 121.0 106.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 346.4 / 322.7 376.0 / 265.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.5 4.7 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
DEN
LAC
DEN
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
0% 0-3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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