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DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

1-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 4:25 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

0-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Bryan Anger None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
COWBOYS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Dallas)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

53.4%

Bears Cover

46.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DAL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-6 points

16.7%

DAL By 7-13 points

16.3%

CHI By 1-6 points

16.0%

CHI By 7-13 points

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
27.3
DALLAS
26.09
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
20
DALLAS
27
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 21, 2025 DAL @ CHI 14 - 31
Oct 30, 2022 CHI @ DAL 29 - 49
Dec 5, 2019 DAL @ CHI 24 - 31
Sep 25, 2016 CHI @ DAL 17 - 31
Dec 4, 2014 DAL @ CHI 41 - 28
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +27.2% more
Dallas: 24.3 vs Chicago: 17.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Dallas: 249.2 vs Chicago: 185.1
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Dallas: 377.0 vs Chicago: 295.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.7% more
Dallas: 127.8 vs Chicago: 110.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 27.3 14
CHI Score 26.1 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 24.3 19.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 185.1 / 249.2 298.0 / 275.0
Rushing Yards 110.4 / 127.8 87.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 295.4 / 377.0 385.0 / 396.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.4 6.8 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
DAL
CHI
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
67% 2-1-1
100% 4-0
100% 3-0-1
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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