Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Bills MIA @ BUF

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

0-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Thu, Sep 18 • 8:15 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

2-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
@
Greg Rousseau
KEY GAME

Greg Rousseau

#15 | Linebacker
Player
Riley Patterson None-None
Greg Rousseau None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
DOLPHINS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.9
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Buffalo)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

28.7%

Bills Cover

71.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -7.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

MIA By 1-6 points

12.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

8.9%

BUF By 1-6 points

16.2%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17.02
MIAMI
24.88
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.9
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 BUF @ MIA 13 - 30
Sep 18, 2025 MIA @ BUF 21 - 31
Nov 3, 2024 MIA @ BUF 27 - 30
Sep 12, 2024 BUF @ MIA 31 - 10
Jan 7, 2024 BUF @ MIA 21 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +98.7% more
Buffalo: 166.8 vs Miami: 83.9
First Downs (L5) +42.0% more
Buffalo: 24.4 vs Miami: 17.2
Total Yards (L5) +30.3% more
Buffalo: 403.6 vs Miami: 309.9
Time of Possession (L5) +12.0% more
Buffalo: 0.6 vs Miami: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 17.0 21
BUF Score 24.9 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.4 / 17.2 23.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 236.9 / 226.0 203.0 / 146.0
Rushing Yards 166.8 / 83.9 157.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 403.6 / 309.9 360.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 0.0 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 5.6 6.3 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
MIA
BUF
MIA
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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