CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
87-64 | Road
8
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
65-87 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Civale
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | None-None | 4.92 | -- | 3.0 | 3 |
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 5.76 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.92 Ldr
ERA
5.76
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
65%
PIRATES
35%
CUBS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.9%
PIT By 1-2 runs
12.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.03
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
2.74
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.374
OPS
▲
.734
0
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+79.1% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+56.5% more
Chicago: 16.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.4
Hits (L5)
+53.9% more
Chicago: 10.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.9
Home Runs (Season)
+18600.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.0
8
PIT Score
2.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.0
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
4.9 / 10.6
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 9.4
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
7.4 / 16.9
13.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.5
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CHC
PIT
CHC
ML
52%
82-77
58%
93-68
52%
85-78
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
81-82
47%
75-85-1
TTL
47%
72-81-6
52%
81-74-6
50%
79-78-6
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …