CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
75-76 | Road
6
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
74-78 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.16 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 5.53 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.16 Ldr
ERA
5.53
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
51%
CARDINALS
49%
REDS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.4%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.66
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
3.73
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699
▲
OPS
.691
213
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+141.0% more
St. Louis: 3.8
vs
Cincinnati: 1.6
Hits (L5)
+20.3% more
St. Louis: 8.4
vs
Cincinnati: 7.0
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
St. Louis: 0.5
vs
Cincinnati: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.7
6
STL Score
3.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.0
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 8.0
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 11.6
9.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.8 / 1.6
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53%
85-74
55%
88-71
52%
84-77
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
80-80
TTL
46%
68-81-10
53%
81-73-5
50%
76-75-10
54%
83-72-5
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