Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

75-76  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Sep 17 • 3:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

77-75  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Drew Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Gilbert

#0 | Center Field
@
Brandon Pfaadt
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Pfaadt

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Gilbert None-None -- -- -- --
Brandon Pfaadt None-None 5.02 -- 9.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.02
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 9.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
49%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
51%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.78
SAN FRANCISCO
6.78
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +80.0% more
Arizona: 10.5 vs San Francisco: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +73.9% more
Arizona: 16.9 vs San Francisco: 9.7
Home Runs (L5) +21.0% more
Arizona: 1.0 vs San Francisco: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +10.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.8 5
ARI Score 6.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.5 / 5.9 4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 5.9 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 9.7 6.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.1 / 4.5 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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