SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
82-69 | Road
7
NEW YORK
METSNYM
78-73 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 2.81 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.81
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
53%
METS
47%
PADRES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.2%
NYM By 1-2 runs
15.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.72
SAN DIEGO
New York
4.36
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
SD @ NYM
2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
SD @ NYM
5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026
SD @ NYM
1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
NYM @ SD
7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
NYM @ SD
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.925
▲
OPS
.705
4
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+39.4% more
San Diego: 11.4
vs
New York: 6.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+28.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+22.0%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.7
7
NYM Score
4.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 9.0
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 2.1
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 11.4
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 17.0
22.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.5 / 1.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SD
NYM
SD
ML
50%
79-80
51%
85-83
48%
76-83
51%
85-82
ATS
58%
93-66
54%
91-77
49%
78-81
55%
92-75
TTL
55%
80-66-13
51%
82-80-6
51%
74-72-13
54%
86-74-6
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