SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
83-68 | Road
5
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
75-76 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.65 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.64 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.65
ERA
Ldr 2.64
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
55%
ROYALS
45%
MARINERS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.3%
KC By 1-2 runs
13.8%
KC By 3-4 runs
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
6.17
SEATTLE
Kansas City
4.25
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
SEA @ KC
6 - 8
May 23, 2026
SEA @ KC
0 - 5
May 22, 2026
SEA @ KC
2 - 0
May 3, 2026
KC @ SEA
4 - 1
May 2, 2026
KC @ SEA
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.693
OPS
▲
.718
182
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.8% more
Seattle: 12.0
vs
Kansas City: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+27.1% more
Seattle: 23.1
vs
Kansas City: 16.8
Home Runs (L5)
+26.7% more
Seattle: 2.4
vs
Kansas City: 1.7
Hits (L5)
+18.8% more
Seattle: 11.5
vs
Kansas City: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
6.2
5
KC Score
4.3
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 11.5
13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 2.4
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 12.0
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.8 / 23.1
22.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.3 / 1.9
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SEA
KC
SEA
ML
55%
89-72
50%
81-81
56%
90-70
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
91-70
60%
98-64
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
90-64-7
56%
85-67-10
54%
83-70-7
53%
81-71-10
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