TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
79-73 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
83-69 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 3.01 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
| Bryan King | None-None | 2.48 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.01
ERA
Ldr 2.48
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
47%
ASTROS
53%
RANGERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.04
TEXAS
Houston
5.4
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.713
▲
OPS
.582
183
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.5% more
Houston: 8.3
vs
Texas: 7.1
Walks (L5)
+13.3% more
Houston: 3.6
vs
Texas: 3.2
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+35.7% more
Texas: 1.1
vs
Houston: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.0
2
HOU Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.4
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 7.1
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 14.4
13.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.2
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TEX
HOU
TEX
ML
50%
81-82
53%
86-76
47%
77-87
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
92-70
55%
90-74
61%
98-63
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
78-70-14
45%
69-86-9
55%
81-66-14
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