MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
71-80 | Road
8
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
41-110 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.30 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 3.81 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.30 Ldr
ERA
3.81
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
70%
ROCKIES
30%
MARLINS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.4%
COL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.08
MIAMI
Colorado
3.79
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
70% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
MIA @ COL
4 - 14
Jul 1, 2026
MIA @ COL
3 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
MIA @ COL
14 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
MIA @ COL
10 - 7
Mar 29, 2026
COL @ MIA
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.727
OPS
▲
.739
168
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+60.4% more
Miami: 1.4
vs
Colorado: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.2% more
Miami: 8.7
vs
Colorado: 4.8
Walks (L5)
+19.0% more
Miami: 2.7
vs
Colorado: 2.2
Hits (L5)
+14.2% more
Miami: 8.6
vs
Colorado: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.1
8
COL Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.6
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
4.8 / 8.7
3.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 12.7
15.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.7
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
MIA
COL
MIA
ML
60%
97-64
48%
78-84
55%
88-73
55%
88-72
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
91-71
52%
83-78
54%
86-74
TTL
60%
93-62-6
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
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