ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
67-83 | Road
6
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
62-88 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.45 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 6.56 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.45 Ldr
ERA
6.56
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
53%
NATIONALS
47%
BRAVES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.7%
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.9%
WSH By 3-4 runs
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.82
ATLANTA
Washington
4.05
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATL @ WSH
9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
ATL @ WSH
5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026
WSH @ ATL
3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Washington
WSH
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.757
▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.3% more
Atlanta: 1.9
vs
Washington: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+43.7% more
Atlanta: 17.9
vs
Washington: 10.1
Hits (L5)
+36.3% more
Atlanta: 10.4
vs
Washington: 6.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.1% more
Atlanta: 10.1
vs
Washington: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.8
6
WSH Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 10.4
8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 10.1
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 17.9
10.0 / 21.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.9
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
57%
92-69
46%
77-90
54%
87-74
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
96-71
57%
91-70
52%
87-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
83-73-11
42%
65-90-6
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS