Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Mets SD @ NYM

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

82-68  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

77-73  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Bradgley Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Bradgley Rodriguez

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bradgley Rodriguez None-None 2.70 -- 1.1 2
Sean Manaea None-None 5.40 -- 5.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
2.70 Ldr ERA 5.40
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
53%
📊
METS
47%
PADRES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

68.6%

Mets Cover

31.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.09
SAN DIEGO
4.15
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 SD @ NYM 2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 SD @ NYM 5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026 SD @ NYM 1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026 NYM @ SD 7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026 NYM @ SD 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.925 ▲
OPS
.705
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +36.4% more
San Diego: 11.5 vs New York: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season) +28.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs New York: 4.3
Total Bases (L5) +26.2% more
San Diego: 16.5 vs New York: 12.2
Home Runs (L5) +24.8% more
San Diego: 1.7 vs New York: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.1 3
NYM Score 4.2 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 10.0 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.7 4.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 11.5 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 16.5 23.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.2 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SD
NYM
SD
ML
50% 79-80
51% 85-83
48% 76-83
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 93-66
54% 91-77
49% 78-81
55% 92-75
TTL
55% 80-66-13
51% 82-80-6
51% 74-72-13
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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