NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
83-67 | Road
10
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
66-84 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Zebby Matthews | None-None | 5.97 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.50 Ldr
ERA
5.97
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
61%
TWINS
39%
YANKEES
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
15.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
17.2%
MIN By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.51
NEW YORK
Minnesota
4.91
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
NYY @ MIN
4 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
NYY @ MIN
8 - 1
Sep 14, 2026
NYY @ MIN
8 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
MIN @ NYY
6 - 1
Jul 4, 2026
MIN @ NYY
11 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Minnesota
MIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
1.041
▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+49.3% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+32.1%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.1%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Minnesota: 40.3%
Batting Avg (Season)
+13.0%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.5
10
MIN Score
4.9
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.3
9.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.4 / 6.8
4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 11.5
20.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.7
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
NYY
MIN
NYY
ML
52%
84-78
47%
76-85
50%
80-81
52%
85-77
ATS
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
59%
95-66
53%
86-76
TTL
51%
78-75-9
53%
81-73-7
53%
80-72-9
53%
82-72-7
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