CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
75-75 | Road
0
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
73-78 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | None-None | 2.88 | -- | 4.2 | 7 |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.88
ERA
Ldr 2.08
--
WHIP
--
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
52%
CARDINALS
48%
REDS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
15.9%
STL By 1-2 runs
16.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
11.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.32
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
3.49
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699
▲
OPS
.691
213
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+72.7% more
Cincinnati: 1.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+22.3% more
Cincinnati: 15.4
vs
St. Louis: 11.9
Home Runs (Season)
+21.6% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.6%
Cincinnati: 39.4%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.3
0
STL Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.0
8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.5
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 15.4
12.0 / 4.0
Walks
4.1 / 1.8
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53%
85-74
55%
88-71
52%
84-77
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
80-80
TTL
46%
68-81-10
53%
81-73-5
50%
76-75-10
54%
83-72-5
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