MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
70-80 | Road
6
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
41-109 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Victor Vodnik
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Vodnik | None-None | 3.04 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Kyle Freeland | None-None | 5.14 | -- | 5.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.04 Ldr
ERA
5.14
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
70%
ROCKIES
30%
MARLINS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.6%
COL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.32
MIAMI
Colorado
3.99
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockies
Loss
30% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
MIA @ COL
4 - 14
Jul 1, 2026
MIA @ COL
3 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
MIA @ COL
14 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
MIA @ COL
10 - 7
Mar 29, 2026
COL @ MIA
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.727
OPS
▲
.739
168
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+7.1% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.2% more
Colorado: 4.6
vs
Miami: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.7%
Colorado: 41.7%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
OPS (Season)
+1.2%
Colorado: 73.9%
vs
Miami: 72.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.3
6
COL Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.0
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.7 / 8.6
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 12.6
11.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.0
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
MIA
COL
MIA
ML
60%
97-64
48%
78-84
55%
88-73
55%
88-72
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
91-71
52%
83-78
54%
86-74
TTL
60%
93-62-6
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-73-5
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