Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

75-75  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

76-75  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Trevor McDonald
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor McDonald

#72 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor McDonald None-None 9.00 -- 2.0 1
Ryan Thompson None-None 4.03 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 4.03
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
50%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

52.0%

Diamondbacks Cover

48.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

18.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

14.1%

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.1%

ARI By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.33
SAN FRANCISCO
6.13
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +43.7% more
San Francisco: 4.7 vs Arizona: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +6.7% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Total Bases (L5) +96.3% more
Arizona: 15.9 vs San Francisco: 8.1
Hits (L5) +94.6% more
Arizona: 9.3 vs San Francisco: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 6.3 5
ARI Score 6.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.3 / 4.8 13.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 7.3 3.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 8.1 19.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.6 / 4.7 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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