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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

90-61  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, Sep 16 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

84-66  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.88 -- 1.0 --
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.86 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.88 Ldr ERA 2.86
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
54%
📊
DODGERS
46%
PHILLIES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

56.1%

Dodgers Cover

43.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

15.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

17.2%

LAD By 3-4 runs

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.12
PHILADELPHIA
5.51
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.724
OPS
▲ .762
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +33.3% more
Philadelphia: 2.5 vs Los Angeles: 1.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Los Angeles: 42.4%
Home Runs (Season) +6700.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5) +50.6% more
Los Angeles: 5.2 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.1 9
LAD Score 5.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.9 / 8.2 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 2.5 3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 8.9 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 19.4 / 17.3 20.0 / 19.0
Walks 5.2 / 3.5 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PHI
LAD
PHI
ML
56% 92-73
59% 97-67
48% 79-87
49% 80-84
ATS
59% 98-67
65% 107-57
43% 72-94
51% 83-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
57% 88-67-9
44% 70-90-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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