Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas Tech @ Utah TTU @ UTAH

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

3-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 12:00 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

3-0  |  Home

10
Key Game
Stone Harrington
KEY GAME

Stone Harrington

#48 | Place kicker
@
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
Player
Stone Harrington None-None
Orion Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS TECH
0%
📊
UTAH
100%
TEXAS TECH --
UTAH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Texas Tech)
Texas TechTTU (-3.5) 0 UtahUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Tech Cover

99.6%

Utah Cover

0.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TTU -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

TTU By 1-6 points

1.0%

TTU By 7-13 points

3.2%

UTAH By 1-6 points

0.3%

UTAH By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
56
TEXAS TECH
19
UTAH
Simulated Score
24
TEXAS TECH
27
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
C
Sim Utah (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 TTU @ UTAH 34 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.6% more
Texas Tech: 1.4 vs Utah: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Texas Tech: 568.8 vs Utah: 441.1
First Downs (L5) +16.6% more
Texas Tech: 28.6 vs Utah: 23.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Utah: 233.8 vs Texas Tech: 188.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TTU Score 56.0 34
UTAH Score 19.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 28.6 16.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 233.8 / 188.6 101.0 / 173.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.6 0.29 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 441.1 / 568.8 263.0 / 484.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
UTAH
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
UTAH
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
TTU
UTAH
TTU
ML
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
TTL
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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