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SOUTH CAROLINA STATE

SC STATESCST

2-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 12:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

2-1  |  Home

63
Key Game
Omari Davis
KEY GAME

Omari Davis

#41 | Defensive End
@
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
Player
Omari Davis None-None
Luke Goater None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SC STATE
100%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
SC STATE --
SOUTH FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-46.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +46.0 points (South Florida)
SC StateSCST (-3.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SC State Cover

0.1%

South Florida Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -46.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

SCST By 1-6 points

0.0%

SCST By 7-13 points

0.0%

USF By 1-6 points

0.2%

USF By 7-13 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
56
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
10
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
48
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Florida Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Florida Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -46.0
C
Sim South Florida (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 SCST @ USF 14 - 63
Sep 14, 2019 SCST @ USF 16 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +42.6% more
South Florida: 379.4 vs South Carolina State: 266.1
First Downs (L5) +24.2% more
South Florida: 17.6 vs South Carolina State: 14.1
Turnovers (L5) +26.0% more
South Carolina State: 1.5 vs South Florida: 1.1
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
South Carolina State: 0.5 vs South Florida: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SCST Score 10.0 14
USF Score 56.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 14.1 20.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 106.3 / 105.1 252.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.28 / 0.72
Total Yards 379.4 / 266.1 504.0 / 305.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCST
--
USF Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: -2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCST
--
USF Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: -2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SCST
--
USF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
SCST
USF
SCST
ML
67% 4-2
-- 0-0
67% 4-2
-- 0-0
ATS
33% 2-4
-- 0-0
33% 2-4
-- 0-0
TTL
33% 2-4
-- 0-0
33% 2-4
-- 0-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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