Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UNLV @ Miami OH UNLV @ M-OH

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

3-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 12:00 PM ET
Yager Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

0-2  |  Home

38
Key Game
Mohamed Altayeb
KEY GAME

Mohamed Altayeb

#16 | Defensive Lineman
@
Mitch Bolden
KEY GAME

Mitch Bolden

#25 | Defensive Back
Player
Mohamed Altayeb None-None
Mitch Bolden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
100%
📊
MIAMI OH
0%
UNLV --
MIAMI OH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Miami (OH))
UNLVUNLV (-3.5) 0 Miami OHM-OH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

0.2%

Miami OH Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around M-OH -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

UNLV By 1-6 points

0.1%

UNLV By 7-13 points

0.0%

M-OH By 1-6 points

0.6%

M-OH By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
UNLV
46
MIAMI (OH)
Simulated Score
27
UNLV
31
MIAMI (OH)
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Miami OH Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Miami OH Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami OH (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
C
Sim Miami OH (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 UNLV @ M-OH 41 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +90.0% more
Miami (OH): 1.5 vs UNLV: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.7% more
UNLV: 192.0 vs Miami (OH): 113.8
First Downs (L5) +33.5% more
UNLV: 20.1 vs Miami (OH): 13.4
Total Yards (L5) +23.6% more
UNLV: 394.9 vs Miami (OH): 301.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 6.0 41
M-OH Score 46.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.4 / 20.1 19.0 / 30.0
Rushing Yards 113.8 / 192.0 131.0 / 222.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.12 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards 301.6 / 394.9 396.0 / 515.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.6 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
M-OH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
M-OH
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
UNLV
M-OH
UNLV
ML
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Pete Golding Emphasizes Execution Over Scheme Change as Ole Miss…
si 1 day ago
Ole Miss Enters Bye Week Facing Critical Defensive Overhaul Afte…
si 4 days, 23 hours ago
Ole Miss Crushed by Florida: Three Urgent Questions Facing the R…
si 1 week, 3 days ago
Chambliss Ignites Rebels: Ole Miss Cuts Florida Lead to 3 After …
saturdaydownsouth 1 week, 4 days ago
Jon Sumrall Fires Subtle Shot at Auburn While Rallying Gators Fa…
yahoo 2 weeks, 1 day ago