SMU
SMUSMU
2-1 | Road
24
TCU
TCUTCU
2-0 | Home
35
Key Game
KEY GAME
Wade McSparron
#43 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Nate McCashland
#99 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Wade McSparron | None-None |
| Nate McCashland | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
100%
TCU
0%
SMU
--
TCU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
SMU By 1-6 points
0.4%
SMU By 7-13 points
0.1%
TCU By 1-6 points
1.4%
TCU By 7-13 points
4.1%
AI Model Projected Score
SMU
14
SMU
TCU
49
TCU
Simulated Score
SMU
27
SMU
TCU
31
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
TCU
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
TCU
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
TCU (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim
TCU (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 63.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2025
SMU @ TCU
24 - 35
Sep 21, 2024
TCU @ SMU
42 - 66
Sep 23, 2023
SMU @ TCU
17 - 34
Sep 24, 2022
TCU @ SMU
42 - 34
Sep 25, 2021
SMU @ TCU
42 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+18.0% more
TCU: 0.6
vs
SMU: 0.4
Total Yards (L5)
+8.5% more
TCU: 459.2
vs
SMU: 423.1
Turnovers (L5)
+43.7% more
SMU: 1.9
vs
TCU: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMU Score
14.0
24
TCU Score
49.0
35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
23.7 / 23.5
24.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards
155.5 / 146.8
138.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.6 / 0.4
0.53 / 0.31
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards
459.2 / 423.1
517.0 / 384.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.9
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: -5.1
TCU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 12.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
1-3-1
(25.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: -5.1
TCU
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 12.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -12.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
SMU
TCU
SMU
ML
60%
3-2
100%
5-0
60%
3-2
100%
5-0
ATS
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
TTL
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
20%
1-4
60%
3-2
Contextual Game News
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