Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UAB @ Tennessee UAB @ TENN

UAB

UABUAB

2-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 12:45 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

2-1  |  Home

56
Key Game
Jonah Delange
KEY GAME

Jonah Delange

#39 | Place kicker
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Jonah Delange None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
100%
📊
TENNESSEE
0%
UAB --
TENNESSEE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
71.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Tennessee)
UABUAB (-3.5) 0 TennesseeTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAB Cover

26.0%

Tennessee Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TENN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

UAB By 1-6 points

11.5%

UAB By 7-13 points

8.0%

TENN By 1-6 points

15.7%

TENN By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31
UAB
40
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
17
UAB
42
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tennessee Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Tennessee Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tennessee (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Tennessee (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 71.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 UAB @ TENN 24 - 56
Nov 2, 2019 UAB @ TENN 7 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.7% more
Tennessee: 196.5 vs UAB: 125.4
Total Yards (L5) +19.6% more
Tennessee: 513.3 vs UAB: 429.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs UAB: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +11.2% more
Tennessee: 26.7 vs UAB: 24.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 31.0 24
TENN Score 40.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.7 / 24.0 28.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 196.5 / 125.4 235.0 / 23.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 513.3 / 429.2 510.0 / 394.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
TENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +0.4
TENN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
UAB
TENN
UAB
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 2-2-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1-1
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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