Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ W Michigan TOL @ WMU

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

2-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

0-3  |  Home

14
Key Game
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Emilio Duran None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
100%
📊
W MICHIGAN
0%
TOLEDO --
W MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
73.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Western Michigan)
ToledoTOL (-3.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

21.6%

W Michigan Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

TOL By 1-6 points

10.0%

TOL By 7-13 points

6.6%

WMU By 1-6 points

14.7%

WMU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31
TOLEDO
42
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
24
TOLEDO
31
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI W Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim W Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI W Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim W Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 73.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 TOL @ WMU 13 - 14
Sep 23, 2023 WMU @ TOL 31 - 49
Nov 25, 2022 TOL @ WMU 14 - 20
Oct 23, 2021 WMU @ TOL 15 - 34
Nov 11, 2020 TOL @ WMU 38 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.7% more
Toledo: 1.2 vs Western Michigan: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +42.4% more
Toledo: 459.9 vs Western Michigan: 265.0
First Downs (L5) +35.0% more
Toledo: 23.3 vs Western Michigan: 15.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.9% more
Toledo: 196.9 vs Western Michigan: 136.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 31.0 13
WMU Score 42.0 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.2 / 23.3 17.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 136.0 / 196.9 90.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.28
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 265.0 / 459.9 291.0 / 280.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
WMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
TOL
WMU
TOL
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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