Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kent State @ Florida St KENT @ FSU

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

1-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

2-0  |  Home

66
Key Game
Mohammed Hazime
KEY GAME

Mohammed Hazime

#88 | Defensive Lineman
@
Antonio Cromartie Jr.
KEY GAME

Antonio Cromartie Jr.

#33 | Defensive Back
Player
Mohammed Hazime None-None
Antonio Cromartie Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENT STATE
0%
📊
FLORIDA ST
100%
KENT STATE --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
KENT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Kent State)
Kent StateKENT (-3.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kent State Cover

80.4%

Florida St Cover

19.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KENT -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

KENT By 1-6 points

14.2%

KENT By 7-13 points

19.5%

FSU By 1-6 points

9.3%

FSU By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
42
KENT STATE
30
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
10
KENT STATE
45
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kent State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kent State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim Florida St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 72.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 KENT @ FSU 10 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +118.3% more
Florida State: 222.4 vs Kent State: 101.9
First Downs (L5) +49.4% more
Florida State: 21.7 vs Kent State: 14.5
Total Yards (L5) +48.4% more
Florida State: 450.3 vs Kent State: 303.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
Florida State: 0.5 vs Kent State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 42.0 10
FSU Score 30.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 14.5 37.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 222.4 / 101.9 498.0 / 43.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.9 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 450.3 / 303.4 775.0 / 206.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
FSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
KENT
FSU
KENT
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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