Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Auburn @ Oklahoma AUB @ OU

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

3-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

3-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Connor Gibbs
KEY GAME

Connor Gibbs

#41 | Place kicker
@
Grayson Miller
KEY GAME

Grayson Miller

#43 | Place kicker
Player
Connor Gibbs None-None
Grayson Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUBURN
100%
📊
OKLAHOMA
0%
AUBURN --
OKLAHOMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oklahoma)
AuburnAUB (-3.5) 0 OklahomaOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Auburn Cover

41.5%

Oklahoma Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)

AUB By 1-6 points

15.3%

AUB By 7-13 points

12.9%

OU By 1-6 points

17.0%

OU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
21
AUBURN
24
OKLAHOMA
Simulated Score
27
AUBURN
31
OKLAHOMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Oklahoma (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 AUB @ OU 17 - 24
Sep 28, 2024 OU @ AUB 27 - 21
Jan 2, 2017 AUB @ OU 19 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +87.0% more
Oklahoma: 1.5 vs Auburn: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +8.1% more
Oklahoma: 443.3 vs Auburn: 410.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Auburn: 204.3 vs Oklahoma: 175.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 21.0 17
OU Score 24.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 22.7 16.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 175.2 / 204.3 32.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 443.3 / 410.0 303.0 / 287.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
OU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
OU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
AUB
OU
AUB
ML
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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