Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ Buffalo TROY @ BUFF

TROY

TROYTROY

1-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
UB Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

2-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
@
Patrick Clacks III
KEY GAME

Patrick Clacks III

#3 | Wide Receiver
Player
Evan Crenshaw None-None
Patrick Clacks III None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
0%
📊
BUFFALO
100%
TROY --
BUFFALO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Troy)
TroyTROY (-3.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

55.7%

Buffalo Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TROY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

TROY By 1-6 points

16.9%

TROY By 7-13 points

16.8%

BUFF By 1-6 points

15.7%

BUFF By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21
TROY
19
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
TROY
28
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Troy Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Buffalo Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Troy (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Sim Buffalo (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 TROY @ BUFF 21 - 17
Dec 22, 2018 BUFF @ TROY 32 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.8% more
Buffalo: 195.5 vs Troy: 129.7
Total Yards (L5) +39.1% more
Buffalo: 404.6 vs Troy: 290.9
First Downs (L5) +24.6% more
Buffalo: 22.2 vs Troy: 17.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 21.0 21
BUFF Score 19.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.2 / 17.8 14.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 195.5 / 129.7 125.0 / 163.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.48
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 404.6 / 290.9 278.0 / 365.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
BUFF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
BUFF
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
TROY
BUFF
TROY
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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