Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Illinois @ Mississippi St NIU @ MSST

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

1-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 4:15 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

3-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Dev'ion Reynolds
KEY GAME

Dev'ion Reynolds

#9 | Cornerback
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Dev'ion Reynolds None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
100%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
0%
N ILLINOIS --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Mississippi State)
N IllinoisNIU (-3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

0.2%

Mississippi St Cover

99.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

NIU By 1-6 points

0.1%

NIU By 7-13 points

0.0%

MSST By 1-6 points

0.6%

MSST By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
6
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
46
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
17
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
38
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mississippi St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mississippi St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
C
Sim Mississippi St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 NIU @ MSST 10 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.0% more
Mississippi State: 1.1 vs Northern Illinois: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +35.7% more
Mississippi State: 420.7 vs Northern Illinois: 310.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Mississippi State: 0.5 vs Northern Illinois: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +13.5% more
Mississippi State: 20.0 vs Northern Illinois: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 6.0 10
MSST Score 46.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 17.6 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 172.7 / 179.1 292.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.11
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 420.7 / 310.2 452.0 / 267.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
NIU
MSST
NIU
ML
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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