Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Idaho @ San José St IDHO @ SJSU

IDAHO

IDAHOIDHO

2-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 5:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

0-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Cameron Pope
KEY GAME

Cameron Pope

#91 | Place kicker
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Cameron Pope None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IDAHO
0%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
100%
IDAHO --
SAN JOSÉ ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Idaho)
IdahoIDHO (-3.5) 0 San José StSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Idaho Cover

95.0%

San José St Cover

5.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IDHO -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)

IDHO By 1-6 points

6.5%

IDHO By 7-13 points

12.9%

SJSU By 1-6 points

2.9%

SJSU By 7-13 points

1.3%

AI Model Projected Score
42
IDAHO
19
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
17
IDAHO
38
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Idaho Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim San José St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Idaho (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
C
Sim San José St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 IDHO @ SJSU 28 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.1% more
Idaho: 130.5 vs San José State: 88.6
Turnovers (L5) +99.3% more
San José State: 2.9 vs Idaho: 1.5
Total Yards (L5) +35.1% more
San José State: 352.6 vs Idaho: 261.0
First Downs (L5) +34.3% more
San José State: 20.3 vs Idaho: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score 42.0 28
SJSU Score 19.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 15.1 15.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 88.6 / 130.5 198.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.7 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 352.6 / 261.0 420.0 / 384.0
Turnovers 2.9 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
--
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
--
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
--
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
IDHO
SJSU
IDHO
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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