Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Murray St @ Jax State MUR @ JXST

MURRAY STATE

MURRAY STMUR

0-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

1-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Cameron Daniels
KEY GAME

Cameron Daniels

#90 | Defensive Lineman
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Cameron Daniels None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MURRAY ST
100%
📊
JAX STATE
0%
MURRAY ST --
JAX STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
76.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-64.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +64.0 points (Jacksonville State)
Murray StMUR (-3.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Murray St Cover

0.0%

Jax State Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JXST -64.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

MUR By 1-6 points

0.0%

MUR By 7-13 points

0.0%

JXST By 1-6 points

0.0%

JXST By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MURRAY STATE
70
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
17
MURRAY STATE
31
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jax State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Jax State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jax State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -64.0
C
Sim Jax State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 76.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 MUR @ JXST 10 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +120.8% more
Jacksonville State: 234.3 vs Murray State: 106.2
Total Yards (L5) +62.0% more
Jacksonville State: 394.4 vs Murray State: 243.4
First Downs (L5) +36.3% more
Jacksonville State: 20.1 vs Murray State: 14.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Jacksonville State: 0.4 vs Murray State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 6.0 10
JXST Score 70.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 14.8 29.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 234.3 / 106.2 329.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.5 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 394.4 / 243.4 531.0 / 233.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 2.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
--
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
--
JXST Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
--
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
MUR
JXST
MUR
ML
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
100% 6-0
67% 2-1
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-3
50% 3-3
0% 0-3
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 3-0
67% 4-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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