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MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

1-2  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Josh Pierre-Louis
KEY GAME

Josh Pierre-Louis

#11 | Defensive Back
@
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
Player
Josh Pierre-Louis None-None
Ashton Logan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARSHALL
0%
📊
MTSU
100%
MARSHALL --
MTSU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
67.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Marshall)
MarshallMRSH (-3.5) 0 MTSUMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marshall Cover

97.3%

MTSU Cover

2.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MRSH -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

MRSH By 1-6 points

4.2%

MRSH By 7-13 points

9.6%

MTSU By 1-6 points

1.6%

MTSU By 7-13 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
47
MARSHALL
20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
27
MARSHALL
20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marshall Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Marshall Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marshall (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
C
Sim Marshall (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 67.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 MTSU @ MRSH 26 - 28
Sep 20, 2025 MRSH @ MTSU 42 - 28
Oct 2, 2021 MRSH @ MTSU 28 - 34
Nov 14, 2020 MTSU @ MRSH 14 - 42
Oct 5, 2019 MRSH @ MTSU 13 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +58.2% more
Marshall: 198.6 vs Middle Tennessee: 83.0
First Downs (L5) +8.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 18.4 vs Marshall: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 47.0 42
MTSU Score 20.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.4 / 16.9 14.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 83.0 / 198.6 74.0 / 187.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.3 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 305.1 / 328.1 373.0 / 448.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
MTSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
MTSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
MRSH
MTSU
MRSH
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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