Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nevada @ Western KY NEV @ WKU

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-2  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

2-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
@
Eric Etienne
KEY GAME

Eric Etienne

#99 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Joe McFadden None-None
Eric Etienne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
0%
📊
WESTERN KY
100%
NEVADA --
WESTERN KY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Nevada)
NevadaNEV (-3.5) 0 Western KYWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

99.7%

Western KY Cover

0.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NEV -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

NEV By 1-6 points

0.7%

NEV By 7-13 points

2.4%

WKU By 1-6 points

0.2%

WKU By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
58
NEVADA
19
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
27
NEVADA
38
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nevada Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Western KY Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nevada (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -39.0
C
Sim Western KY (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 77.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 WKU @ NEV 14 - 49
Sep 20, 2025 NEV @ WKU 16 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.9% more
Nevada: 169.6 vs Western Kentucky: 93.5
Turnovers (L5) +20.2% more
Nevada: 2.0 vs Western Kentucky: 1.6
Total Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Western Kentucky: 407.9 vs Nevada: 351.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.4 vs Nevada: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 58.0 16
WKU Score 19.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 18.3 22.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 93.5 / 169.6 145.0 / 207.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 407.9 / 351.9 361.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.0 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
WKU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -13.0 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
WKU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -13.0 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
WKU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
NEV
WKU
NEV
ML
67% 4-2
25% 1-3
67% 4-2
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 2-4
50% 2-2
33% 2-4
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 3-3
25% 1-3
50% 3-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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