Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona St @ Baylor ASU @ BAY

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

2-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:30 PM ET
McLane Stadium
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

2-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Kanyon Floyd
KEY GAME

Kanyon Floyd

#31 | Punter
@
Kyler Jordan
KEY GAME

Kyler Jordan

#40 | Defensive End
Player
Kanyon Floyd None-None
Kyler Jordan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
100%
📊
BAYLOR
0%
ARIZONA ST --
BAYLOR --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
93.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Baylor)
Arizona StASU (-3.5) 0 BaylorBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

26.0%

Baylor Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAY -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

ASU By 1-6 points

11.5%

ASU By 7-13 points

8.0%

BAY By 1-6 points

15.7%

BAY By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
42
ARIZONA STATE
51
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA STATE
27
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Baylor Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Baylor Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Baylor (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Baylor (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 93.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 BAY @ ASU 55 - 19
Sep 20, 2025 ASU @ BAY 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +62.0% more
Baylor: 1.4 vs Arizona State: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +28.3% more
Baylor: 28.4 vs Arizona State: 22.2
Total Yards (L5) +18.3% more
Baylor: 508.0 vs Arizona State: 429.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.6% more
Arizona State: 230.6 vs Baylor: 169.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 42.0 27
BAY Score 51.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 28.4 / 22.2 18.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 169.3 / 230.6 107.0 / 179.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 508.0 / 429.5 357.0 / 400.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.8 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
ASU
BAY
ASU
ML
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
TTL
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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