Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington @ Washington St WASH @ WSU

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

2-0  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

2-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Grady Gross
KEY GAME

Grady Gross

#20 | Place kicker
@
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Grady Gross None-None
Jack Stevens None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON
0%
📊
WASHINGTON ST
100%
WASHINGTON --
WASHINGTON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Washington)
WashingtonWASH (-3.5) 0 Washington StWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington Cover

64.0%

Washington St Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WASH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

WASH By 1-6 points

16.9%

WASH By 7-13 points

18.5%

WSU By 1-6 points

14.2%

WSU By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
28
WASHINGTON
23
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
31
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Washington Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Washington St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Washington (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim Washington St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 WSU @ WASH 10 - 24
Sep 20, 2025 WASH @ WSU 59 - 24
Sep 14, 2024 WSU @ WASH 24 - 19
Nov 25, 2023 WSU @ WASH 21 - 24
Nov 26, 2022 WASH @ WSU 51 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.6% more
Washington: 212.1 vs Washington State: 92.1
Total Yards (L5) +30.2% more
Washington: 479.0 vs Washington State: 334.4
First Downs (L5) +28.7% more
Washington: 25.7 vs Washington State: 18.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Washington: 0.6 vs Washington State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WASH Score 28.0 59
WSU Score 23.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 25.7 21.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 92.1 / 212.1 25.0 / 173.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.89
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 334.4 / 479.0 304.0 / 471.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.7 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WASH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
WSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
WASH
WSU
WASH
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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