Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida @ Miami FLA @ MIA

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

3-0  |  Home

26
Key Game
Jeramiah McCloud
KEY GAME

Jeramiah McCloud

#91 | Defensive Lineman
@
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
Player
Jeramiah McCloud None-None
Dylan Joyce None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA
0%
📊
MIAMI
100%
FLORIDA --
MIAMI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
74.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Florida)
FloridaFLA (-3.5) 0 MiamiMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida Cover

76.2%

Miami Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FLA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

FLA By 1-6 points

15.3%

FLA By 7-13 points

19.7%

MIA By 1-6 points

10.7%

MIA By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
42
FLORIDA
32
MIAMI
Simulated Score
24
FLORIDA
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Florida Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Miami Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Florida (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Miami (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 74.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 FLA @ MIA 7 - 26
Aug 31, 2024 MIA @ FLA 41 - 17
Aug 24, 2019 MIA @ FLA 20 - 24
Sep 7, 2013 FLA @ MIA 16 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.2% more
Florida: 2.3 vs Miami: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.8% more
Miami: 195.9 vs Florida: 143.2
Total Yards (L5) +31.8% more
Miami: 513.3 vs Florida: 389.5
First Downs (L5) +19.5% more
Miami: 26.4 vs Florida: 22.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 42.0 7
MIA Score 32.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.4 / 22.1 21.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 195.9 / 143.2 184.0 / 80.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 513.3 / 389.5 344.0 / 141.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
FLA
MIA
FLA
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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