Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ Texas SHSU @ TEX

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

0-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 8:00 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

2-1  |  Home

55
Key Game
Darien Jackson
KEY GAME

Darien Jackson

#10 | Defensive Tackle
@
Jordon Johnson-Rubell
KEY GAME

Jordon Johnson-Rubell

#23 | Defensive Back
Player
Darien Jackson None-None
Jordon Johnson-Rubell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
100%
📊
TEXAS
0%
SAM HOUSTON --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Texas)
Sam HoustonSHSU (-3.5) 0 TexasTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

17.7%

Texas Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEX -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

SHSU By 1-6 points

8.6%

SHSU By 7-13 points

5.3%

TEX By 1-6 points

13.5%

TEX By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SAM HOUSTON
19
TEXAS
Simulated Score
10
SAM HOUSTON
45
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 SHSU @ TEX 0 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.0% more
Texas: 1.4 vs Sam Houston: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.5% more
Texas: 169.2 vs Sam Houston: 121.3
Total Yards (L5) +28.6% more
Texas: 384.8 vs Sam Houston: 299.3
First Downs (L5) +13.9% more
Texas: 20.3 vs Sam Houston: 17.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 6.0 0
TEX Score 19.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 17.8 26.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 169.2 / 121.3 264.0 / 27.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.64 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 384.8 / 299.3 607.0 / 113.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SHSU
TEX
SHSU
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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