Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UL Monroe @ UTEP ULM @ UTEP

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

1-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-2  |  Home

25
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
Carlos Arreola None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
100%
📊
UTEP
0%
UL MONROE --
UTEP --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
UTEP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (UTEP)
UL MonroeULM (-3.5) 0 UTEPUTEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

11.2%

UTEP Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

ULM By 1-6 points

5.9%

ULM By 7-13 points

3.2%

UTEP By 1-6 points

10.7%

UTEP By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
15
UL MONROE
32
UTEP
Simulated Score
20
UL MONROE
27
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTEP Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTEP Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTEP (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim UTEP (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 ULM @ UTEP 31 - 25
Sep 26, 2020 UTEP @ ULM 31 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +11.5% more
UTEP: 324.8 vs UL Monroe: 291.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.9% more
UL Monroe: 179.0 vs UTEP: 111.2
Turnovers (L5) +28.2% more
UL Monroe: 2.1 vs UTEP: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 15.0 31
UTEP Score 32.0 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.1 / 15.9 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 111.2 / 179.0 33.0 / 250.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 324.8 / 291.4 442.0 / 399.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.1 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM Advantage
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM Advantage
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
ULM
UTEP
ULM
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
TTL
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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