Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTSA @ Colorado St UTSA @ CSU

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

1-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 9:30 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

1-1  |  Home

16
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
Keegan Shank
KEY GAME

Keegan Shank

#90 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
Keegan Shank None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
0%
📊
COLORADO ST
100%
UTSA --
COLORADO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
95.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (UTSA)
UTSAUTSA (-3.5) 0 Colorado StCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

88.8%

Colorado St Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTSA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

UTSA By 1-6 points

10.7%

UTSA By 7-13 points

17.5%

CSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

CSU By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
56
UTSA
39
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
20
UTSA
31
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UTSA Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Colorado St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UTSA (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Colorado St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 95.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 CSU @ UTSA 45 - 59
Sep 20, 2025 UTSA @ CSU 17 - 16
Sep 10, 2016 UTSA @ CSU 14 - 23
Sep 26, 2015 CSU @ UTSA 33 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.4% more
UTSA: 213.7 vs Colorado State: 157.4
Total Yards (L5) +16.4% more
UTSA: 447.3 vs Colorado State: 373.8
Turnovers (L5) +224.0% more
Colorado State: 2.8 vs UTSA: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 56.0 17
CSU Score 39.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 21.8 20.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 157.4 / 213.7 153.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.39 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 373.8 / 447.3 407.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 2.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
CSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
CSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
UTSA
CSU
UTSA
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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