Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ Hawai'i FRES @ HAW

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

3-1  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

3-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Tytus Khajavi
KEY GAME

Tytus Khajavi

#35 | Linebacker
@
Zaden Mariteragi
KEY GAME

Zaden Mariteragi

#18 | Linebacker
Player
Tytus Khajavi None-None
Zaden Mariteragi None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
100%
📊
HAWAI'I
0%
FRESNO ST --
HAWAI'I --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
90.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Hawai'i)
Fresno StFRES (-3.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

19.6%

Hawai'i Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HAW -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

FRES By 1-6 points

9.3%

FRES By 7-13 points

5.9%

HAW By 1-6 points

14.2%

HAW By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
FRESNO STATE
51
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
31
FRESNO STATE
24
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawai'i Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Fresno St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawai'i (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim Fresno St (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 90.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 FRES @ HAW 23 - 21
Nov 2, 2024 HAW @ FRES 21 - 20
Nov 5, 2022 HAW @ FRES 13 - 55
Oct 2, 2021 FRES @ HAW 24 - 27
Oct 24, 2020 HAW @ FRES 34 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.4% more
Hawai'i: 1.6 vs Fresno State: 1.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.4% more
Fresno State: 192.3 vs Hawai'i: 101.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Fresno State: 0.5 vs Hawai'i: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +8.2% more
Fresno State: 22.6 vs Hawai'i: 20.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 39.0 23
HAW Score 51.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 22.6 20.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 101.1 / 192.3 89.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 368.5 / 400.1 308.0 / 301.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
FRES
HAW
FRES
ML
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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