Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Nationals ATL @ WSH

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

66-83  |  Road

11
FINAL
Mon, Sep 15 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

62-87  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Lee None-None 3.20 -- 1.0 --
Orlando Ribalta None-None 6.45 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.20 Ldr ERA 6.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
53%
📊
NATIONALS
47%
BRAVES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

49.1%

Nationals Cover

50.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.18
ATLANTA
4.27
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
7
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATL @ WSH 9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 ATL @ WSH 5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 WSH @ ATL 3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Washington WSH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.757 ▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20900.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5) +76.0% more
Washington: 1.1 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Walks (L5) +51.7% more
Washington: 5.0 vs Atlanta: 3.3
Runs per Game (Season) +1.4% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Atlanta: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.2 11
WSH Score 4.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.6 6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.4 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 10.6 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 12.8 9.0 / 28.0
Walks 5.0 / 3.3 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ATL
WSH
ATL
ML
57% 92-69
46% 77-90
54% 87-74
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 96-71
57% 91-70
52% 87-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
53% 83-73-11
42% 65-90-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 3 hours, 8 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 15 hours, 14 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 21 hours, 18 minutes ago
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
yahoo 1 day, 21 hours ago
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS
usatoday 2 days, 15 hours ago