BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
69-80 | Road
4
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
57-93 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Bradish
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 5.0 | 9 |
| Sean Burke | None-None | 4.29 | -- | 4.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
4.29
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
58%
WHITE SOX
42%
ORIOLES
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.8%
CHW By 1-2 runs
17.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.08
BALTIMORE
Chicago
3.66
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
CHW @ BAL
1 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
CHW @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
CHW @ BAL
8 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
BAL @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 7, 2026
BAL @ CHW
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Chicago
CHW
161
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.711
OPS
▲
.826
199
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+73.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Chicago: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+46.1% more
Baltimore: 1.0
vs
Chicago: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.5% more
Baltimore: 7.6
vs
Chicago: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.1
4
CHW Score
3.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 6.4
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 7.6
8.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
8.8 / 10.3
5.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.0
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
BAL
CHW
BAL
ML
48%
81-87
53%
83-73
56%
94-74
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
99-69
61%
95-60-1
55%
93-75
57%
90-68-1
TTL
58%
97-69-2
54%
81-70-5
51%
85-81-2
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox