Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Nationals PIT @ WSH

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

65-84  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 11:35 AM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

61-87  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Nick Gonzales
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Gonzales

#3 | Third Base
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Gonzales None-None -- -- -- --
Clayton Beeter None-None 4.03 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.03
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
52%
📊
NATIONALS
48%
PIRATES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

59.7%

Nationals Cover

40.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

16.3%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.4%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.67
PITTSBURGH
3.69
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 PIT @ WSH 11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PIT @ WSH 7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026 PIT @ WSH 5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026 WSH @ PIT 8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026 WSH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.734
OPS
▲ .744
186
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +23.1% more
Pittsburgh: 9.2 vs Washington: 7.1
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.9%
Pittsburgh: 33.0% vs Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.7%
Pittsburgh: 25.3% vs Washington: 24.6%
Errors (L5) +88.0% more
Washington: 1.2 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.7 3
WSH Score 3.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.2 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 9.2 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 11.1 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.0 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
57% 92-69
52% 82-77
54% 87-74
52% 85-78
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 81-82
TTL
50% 77-78-6
47% 72-81-6
42% 65-90-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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