HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
81-68 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
65-83 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Okert
#48 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Okert | None-None | 3.27 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.27 Ldr
ERA
3.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
60%
BRAVES
40%
ASTROS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
14.9%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.42
HOUSTON
Atlanta
2.87
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
4 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 18, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
HOU @ ATL
3 - 8
Sep 13, 2025
HOU @ ATL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.582
OPS
▲
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+34.8% more
Houston: 9.1
vs
Atlanta: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+26.9% more
Houston: 13.9
vs
Atlanta: 10.2
Home Runs (L5)
+11.1% more
Houston: 1.2
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+105.2% more
Atlanta: 3.9
vs
Houston: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.4
3
ATL Score
2.9
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.9 / 9.1
11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 6.1
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.2 / 13.9
18.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.9 / 1.9
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
HOU
ATL
HOU
ML
46%
77-90
50%
81-82
54%
90-78
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
91-72
52%
87-81
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
83-73-11
45%
70-84-9
49%
76-80-11
45%
69-86-9
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